摘要
本文基于地方政府预期偿债能力构建均衡负债模型，以H省W市JK区作为数值算例进行分析，测算出三种经济增速情景下2012～2015年该地方政府的负债能力，并建立债务风险指标体系对2008—2012年间JK区政府的债务风险进行判别。研究认为，地方政府负债能力主要取决于财政收入增量、地区生产总值，即债务规模应该与社会发展程度以及地方经济承载能力相适应。同时，分析也表明，JK区政府债务风险总体呈下降趋势，当前债务规模在其负债能力范围之内。本文为地方政府负债能力的量化研究提供了一套方法，即根据地方政府预期偿债资金来源分析其当前及未来一定时期内的负债能力，同时构建了债务风险指标体系并提供参考预警线，为地方政府债务管理提供依据。
The Local government debt has accumulated rapidly in recent years, the government of China launched 4 trillion investment plans to deal with the debt crisis in 2009, most of the funding is financed through the investment and financing platform ,which has not been classified to government debt but paying ability depends on local government revenue. With background of the current economic structure in China, fund demand of the infra- structure construction continues to expand, but most of local governments have not established the mechanism of debt management, thus it may lead to short-term risk and long-term risk in borrowing behaviors. For short-term risk, it would like to weaken local financial resilience and increase the bank＇s bad debt; for long-term risk, it would like to weaken the ability of government＇s macroeconomic regulation and have negative impacts on the country＇s financial stability and economic security. In the context of budget deficit accumulated largely and rapidly in China, the debt risk has emerged increasingly, potential risks is significant in the future. In this paper, we establish General Equilibrium Debt Model on the basis of analyzing expected debt-paying abili- ty. It analyzes the debt capacity of local government in current and the future time through discounting of future cash flows ,combining the regional sustainable development strategy and the principle of optimizing resource allocation, guiding an equilibrium between debt scale and debt-paying ability, so that the size of the debt correspond to the social development, as well as local economic carrying capacity. The model consists of two categories, the I type consider the local government debt size is no longer expanding in the future, assuming without new debt due to lack of construction funds during the entire repayment period, but considering the form of refinancing for old debt, so that achieving an in- finite continuation of the debt maturity. The II type is improved on the basis of the I type,it suppose debt repaym
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第5期10-18,共9页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"欧美国家债务危机对我国的影响及对策研究"(12JZD029)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金支助项目"我国保障性住房政策对宏观经济的影响研究"(201110501020002)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目青年基金项目"金融部门极端风险与政府担保风险责任研究"(10YJC790217)
关键词
负债能力
预期偿债能力
均衡负债模型
债务风险
debt capacity
expected debt-paying ability
General Equilibrium Debt Model
debt risk
