摘要
基于粮食产量计量模型,运用LMDI方法,分析江苏省粮食生产时空变化的影响因素。结果表明:1978年-2009年,粮食单产、耕地数量、种植结构、复种指数等4因素的变化对粮食产出的累积效果依次减小;其间江苏省粮食生产经历了快速增长、稳中有升和调整回复3个阶段,粮食单产促总产的效应分阶段逐步减弱,耕地减少和种植结构调整对粮食的减产效应逐步增强,复种指数变化的效应经历了正负反复的过程。现阶段单产和复种指数的变化对粮食的增产贡献南低北高,而耕地减少和结构调整对粮食的减产效应则南高北低,由此导致江苏省粮食生产南退北进的空间分化格局。由于构成粮食产量的4个因素可以代表耕地利用的不同方向,本研究一定程度上可以揭示粮食生产与耕地利用的关系。
To examine links between grain production and cultivated land use, we used the LMDI approach and decomposition analysis based on grain production calculating models. Temporalspatial variation in grain production in Jiangsu province was studied by quantifying four factors： grain yield per hectare （intensity effect）, cultivated land area （scale effect）, planting structure （structure effect） and multiple-cropping index （degree effect）. The results show that three major phases were categorized according to the dynamic trajectory of grain production since the economic reforms of 1978： rapid increase （first stage： 1978-1984）, stable increase （second stage： 1984-1997）, and fall then recovery increase （third stage： 1997-2009）. Aggregate intensity effect was the largest and only positive contributor to total grain increment throughout 1978-2009, whereas the other three negatively affected grain production. In absolute terms, the remaining three effects lead to grain reduction as follows： scale effect 〉 structure effect 〉 degree effect. Spatially, southern Jiangsu＇s grain production was shrinking when northern Jiangsu experienced a compensating increase during the latter phase. A higher positive intensity effect and degree effect were observed in northern Jiangsu, while southern Jiangsu generally had a higher negative scale effect and structure effect, even with the negative degree effect in Tai-Lake surroundings. We outline some policy implications that would enhance food security for Jiangsu province： intensification of cultivation via yield increases and multiple cropping;restriction on cropland conversion to other land uses;modern mass production in northern Jiangsu facilitated by land-saving spatial development and the creation of non-farm jobs;and multifunctional land use in southern Jiangsu in response to the demands for both productivity increase and ecological services.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第4期758-763,共6页
Resources Science
基金
江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)
关键词
粮食生产
耕地利用
因素分解
LMDI法
江苏省
Grain production
Cultivated land use
Factors decomposition
LMDI
Jiangsu province
