摘要
利用 19口井 (泉 ) 33个测项的地下流体观测资料 ,采用地下流体异常演化的多层次跟踪预报方法 ,分别对 1983年菏泽 5 9级和 1995年苍山 5 2级地震进行了中期、短期和短临 3个时间尺度的震情预测。结果表明 ,地震前地下流体异常的群体演化显示增长趋势 ,异常与地震具有“增长—地震”或“加速—地震”的关系。具有统一物理力学机制成因的水化学多组分同步变化是源兆异常的重要标志 ,其出现预示在井孔所处的同一条断裂带上 ,断裂强烈活动和深部构造背景区。
Based on analyzing observed data of underground fluid including 33 items in 19 wells,using the method of the multi layered prediction on underground fluid anomaly variations,the seismic condition predictions in medium term,short term and impending for the M S5 9 Heze earthquake in 1983 and the M S5 2 Cangshan earthquake in 1995 are made respectively.The results show that anomalous evolution of underground fluid appears increasing trend before the earthquakes,and relations between the anomalies of underground fluid and the earthquakes are characterized by“anomaly increasing earthquake occurring”or“anomaly accelerating earthquake occurring”.The synchronism variation of hydrogeochemical elements with the same forcing mechanism is a important mark of the source precursor anomaly,which indicates earthquake to occur at the fault zone around wells.The places(regions)are favourable for strong earthquake occurring,where there are intense faults activating and deep tectonics,historical strong earthquakes occurring and compressional zone by fault movementing.
出处
《华南地震》
2000年第2期27-31,共5页
South China Journal of Seismology
基金
1998年山东省地震局合同制基金课题
关键词
地震预报
地下流体
多层次跟踪预报
源兆异常
earthquake prediction
underground fluid
method of multi layered prediction
source precursor anomaly
