摘要
将非线性STR模型应用于1952—2010年我国通货膨胀对经济增长影响的研究,揭示了二者之间复杂有趣的变化规律。研究结果表明:我国通货膨胀对经济增长的影响具有以下特点:(1)非线性特征,并能够通过LSTR1模型表达;(2)非对称性,当通货膨胀率上涨1%时,我国人均实际产出下降3.4809%;(3)阶段性特征,1952—1976年呈明显的非线性特征,1977—2007年呈明显的线性特征,2008—2010年又回到了非线性特征,我国目前滞胀风险很小。另外,基于VECM模型的脉冲响应结果显示:从长期来看,我国通货膨胀与经济增长的关系支持了古典学派和新古典学派"货币中性假说";而对于经济增长的冲击,通货膨胀率表现出稳定的正向响应,意味着我国的通货膨胀将伴随着经济增长而持久存在。
The nonlinear STR model is applied to effects of China＇ s inflation on economic growth from 1952 -2010 , The study reveals a complex interesting variation between them. The results show that： China＇ s inflation on economic growth has the following characteristics： （ 1 ） non - linear characteristics, and it can be expressed by LSTRI model; （2） non - symmetry, when the inflation rate rose by 1%, China＇s pereapita real output fell by 3.4809% ; （3） In 1952 - 1976 phase characteristics show a clear non - linear characteristics, 1977 - 2007 showed a significant linear features, while 2008 -2010 back to the nonlinear characteristics of China＇scurrent stagflation risk is low. In addition, the VECM model based on resuits of impulse response show that ： In the long run, inflation and economic growth of China＇ s support for the relationship between the classical and neoclassical school of ＂money neutrality hypothesis＂; and the impact on economic growth, inflation performance a stable positive response means that China＇ s inflation will be accompanied by economic growth and persistent.
出处
《哈尔滨商业大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2013年第2期63-71,91,共10页
Journal of Harbin University of Commerce:Social Science Edition
基金
教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(10JJD790013)
辽宁省财政科研基金项目(10B001)
辽宁省社科规划基金重点项目(L10AJL004)
