摘要
寿险企业的可持续发展是业界和学术界关注的热点问题。本文从理论分析、案例分析和实证分析三方面探讨寿险企业的发展规律,构建以Gibrat法则为基础的成长模型,基于2004年～2011年33家寿险公司非平衡面板数据检验企业规模与成长的关系,通过分位数回归法分析在不同规模下影响企业成长的因素。结果发现:小规模企业的成长接近Gibrat法则,大规模企业的成长偏离Gibrat法则;中大规模企业获利率与企业成长显著负相关;企业年龄对企业成长的影响不显著;市场占有率的提高显著促进大规模企业成长;费用率过高在初期成为制约公司发展的主导因素;退保率对公司成长的影响显著为负,这种负向影响随着企业规模增大而增大。
Sustainable development of the life insurance companies is a hot issue in the industry and the academia. This paper studied the law of development of life insurance enterprises by means of theoretical analysis, case study and empirical analysis, and built a growth model based on the Gibrat Law. Based on 2004-2011 unbalanced panel data of 33 life insurance companies, it also tested the relationship between firm size and growth, and analyzed factors affecting the growth of life insurance companies of different sizes according to Quantile regression method. The results showed that： the growth of small-scale enterprises was close to Gibrat law, but the growth of large-scale enterprises deviated from the Gibrat law;profitability and business growth of medium to large-scale enterprises were in significant negative correlations ; firm age didn＇ t have significant impact on firm growth ; increasing market share significantly promoted growth of large-scale enterprises;high expense ratio was the dominant factor restricting firm growth in the early stage;lapse rates was significantly negative on the company＇ s growth, and this negative impact increased as firm size increased.
出处
《保险研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期88-99,共12页
Insurance Studies
基金
"国家自然科学基金项目(71073084)"的资助
