摘要
讨论了我国用电量及其影响因素问题。取国内生产总值（GDP）、人口总数和原煤产量3个变量作为解释变量，分析它们对用电总量的影响程度。得出以下结论：（1）通过F检验，得出这3个自变量与用电量有显著线性关系，通过t检验，得出人口总数对用电量没有显著性影响，并通过回归诊断，得出线性回归方程，（2）预测了国家2012～2016年的用电量分别为26533．66亿千瓦时，28914．31亿千瓦时，31083．88亿千瓦时，33157．45亿千瓦时，35054．74亿千瓦时，这些研究结果为我国电力建设和社会发展规划提供了定量科学依据。
This article discusses the issues of power consumption and its influence factors,taking the gross domestic production（GDP）,the total population and the raw coal output as an explanatory variable,analyzing the impact of the three variables on the total electricity consumption.Conclusions are as follows： （1） these three independent variables have a significant linear relationship with electricity consumption by F test,the total population does not significantly influence electricity consumption by the T test,a linear regression equation by is drawn regression diagnostics： y =-1.681 × 103 ＋ 7.136 × 10-2x1 ＋ 6.118 × 102x3; （2） it predicts the annual electricity consumptions of electricity consumption in 2012-2016 are： 26533.66,28914.31,31083.88,33157.45,35054.74 kilowatt hours.These findings provide a quantitative scientific basis for the construction of China′s power and social development planning.
出处
《山西大同大学学报（自然科学版）》
2013年第1期18-21,共4页
Journal of Shanxi Datong University(Natural Science Edition)
关键词
用电量
F检验
T检验
线形回归
预测
electricity consumption
F test
T test
linear regression
forecast
