摘要
在对新疆乌昌地区1961—2010年≥10℃积温、最热月(7月)平均气温和无霜期等热量要素时空变化进行分析的基础上,结合北疆棉区区划指标,完成了2004年前、后乌昌地区棉花种植气候区划。并对未来年平均气温升高1～4℃时,棉花种植气候区划的可能变化进行了预估。结果表明:乌昌地区热量资源在空间分布上表现为"平原多,山区少"的格局。1961—2010年≥l0℃积温、最热月平均气温和无霜期分别以每10年52.3℃.d、0.1℃和3.3 d的速率增多(升高、延长),并分别于1995年、2004年和1987年发生了突变。受其影响,2004年后乌昌地区宜棉区较之前明显扩大,次宜棉区、风险棉区和不宜棉区有不同程度的缩小。未来气候变暖将对乌昌地区棉花种植气候区划产生较大影响,年平均气温每升高1℃,宜棉区面积将扩大6600 km2,次宜棉区和不宜棉区分别缩小2100 km2和4700 km2,风险棉区面积变化不大。
Based on the daily temperature data of sixteen meteorological stations in Uriimqi City and the Changji Hui national autonomous prefecture of Xinjiang （the Urumnqi Changji region） during 1961-2010, the fundamental spatial and temporal change characteristics of the annual accumulated temperature of ≥10 ℃, July （the warmest month in a year） mean temperature and frost-free period were analyzed by using the linear regression method, the ttest and the three-dimensional and quadratic trend surface simulation and the inverse-distance squared weighting residual error revising based on GIS. The cotton-planting climate zoning for the/driimqi-Changji region in 1961 2003 and 2004 201 ：） were completed with the climate indicators of cotton zoning. Possible changes of climate zoning for cotton planting relative to that in 1961-2010 were projected for the future when annual mean temperature increases 1 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃ and 4 ℃, respectively. The main results are as follows： the agro-climatic heat resource in 1961 2010 was obviously different from areas of the Llriimqi Changji region; generally, the annual accumulated temperature of ≥ 10 ℃, July mean temperature and frost-free period were higher/longer in plain areas than in mountainous areas. The three indicators showed an increasing trend at the rates of 52.3 ℃. d/10a, 0.1 ℃/10a and 3.3 d/10a in 1961 2010, and had an abrupt increase, rise and extension in 1995, 2004 and 1987, respectively. Under the joint effects of the above-mentioned climate factors, the area suitable for cotton growing after 2004 had a substantial expansion relative to that before 2004, but the areas secondly suitable, risk and unsuitable for cotton growing reduced to different extent. The global warming in future will significantly affect the cotton zoning in the nimqi-Changji region. Overall, under the premise of other conditions remaining invariant, when the annual mean temperature increases by 1 ℃ relative to that of 1961-2010, the area suitable for cotton growing will incr
出处
《气候变化研究进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第4期257-264,共8页
Climate Change Research
基金
新疆气象科研项目(201127)
关键词
气候变暖
热量资源
棉花区划
乌昌地区
global warming
heat resource
cotton-plating zoning
Onimqi-Changji region
