摘要
采用1997～2010年中国内地各省(地级市)与香港贸易量数据,在引力模型和Nicolas Peridy(2005)模型的基础上实证研究了中国内地与香港签署CEPA协议产生的贸易创造效应。在模型的各种设定下,中国加入WTO对内地与香港的贸易创造为31.2%～32.1%,CEPA签署产生的贸易创造为16.8%～19.1%,实证结果表明CEPA的签署对内地和香港经济产生了正的贸易创造效应,但仍然存在限制效应发挥的贸易障碍,要扩大CEPA合作的深度和广度,推进两地的经贸合作走向新阶段。
Based on the theory of gravity model and Nicolas Peridy＇s model （2005）, this paper uses the trade data between the Mainland and Hong Kong from 1997 to 2010 to analyze the trade creation effect produced under the framework of CEPA. The empirical tests show that China＇s WTO entry promotes the trade creation between the Mainland and Hong Kong by 31.2%-32.1%, while the signing of CEPA creates the trade by 16.8%-19.1%. The conclusion is that CEPA brings out a positive trade effect but not so outstanding, and trade barriers still exit between Hong Kong and the Mainland, therefore, it suggests that we should further enlarge the depth of CEPA cooperation.
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期61-71,共11页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
广东省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(10JDXM79004)
