摘要
目的研发呼吸道传染病潜伏期传播轨迹分析技术，探讨其在传染病现场调查处置中的应用价值。方法将经典的潜伏期分析理论与地理信息技术结合，以ArcGIS Engine Developer Kit9．3为建模平台，融合地址匹配、最短路径分析和缓冲区分析等技术，使用VisualC＋＋语言进行编程，构建潜伏期传播轨迹分析软件模型。以2003年上海市全部8例严重急性呼吸系统综合征（SARS）患者为原型，建立测试案例A—H，电子地图和人口密度数据分别来源于上海市测绘院和2003年上海市统计年鉴，使用单病例和多病例分析模块对测试病例传播轨迹长度，缓冲区面积和区域内重点单位等参数进行计算和探测。结果单病例潜伏期传播轨迹分析显示，病例A在2003年4月25—29日期间的传播轨迹总长度为129．89km，共涉及12个轨迹点和108名密切接触者，缓冲区总面积为7．11km2，缓冲区内共有81个具有公共卫生意义的重点单位，分别为72所学校、6家托幼机构和3家敬老院。多病例潜伏期传播轨迹分析显示，8例患者共呈现5条潜伏期传播轨迹，彼此不存在潜伏期时间交集，但存在长度为1．42km，面积为0．60km。的空间交集，交集内未探测到重点单位。结论潜伏期传播轨迹分析技术对于追溯传染源、分析传播轨迹、设置隔离缓冲区和探测重点地理位置均具有辅助价值。
Objective To develop a new transmission tracking analysis technique during incubation period of respiratory infectious diseases, and to discuss its practical value in the field survey of infectious diseases. Methods The classical epidemiological theory was integrated with geographic information system. The transmission tracking analysis technique was established based on the modeling platform ArcGIS Engine Developer Kit 9. 3, using the techniques of address matching, shortest path analysis and buffer analysis, and programming by Visual C ＋＋. Eight serious sever acute respiratory syndrome （SARS） cases in Shanghai in year 2003 were then chose as prototype to set up the test cases A - H. The electronic map and population density data were separately collected from Institute of Surveying and Mapping in Shanghai and Shanghai statistical yearbook 2003, to calculate and explore the parameters as length of transmission path, area of buffer zone and key departments by single and multi case analysis module. Results The single case transmission tracking analysis showed that the length of transmission track of case A was 1：29. 89 km during April 25th to 29th in 2003, including 12 tracing point and 108 intimate contacts, and the total area of buffer zone was 7.1 l kmz including 81 important institutes, naming 72 schools ,6 kindergartens and 3 geroeomiums. The multi-case transmission tracking analysis showed that the 8 cases shared 5 tracks without any temporal communication. However, there was a spatial communication whose length was 1.42 km and area was 0. 60 km2. There were no important institutes found in this communication area. Conclusion Transmission tracking technique is practicable and efficient to trace the source of infection, analyze the transmission tracks,establish the isolation buffer area and explore the important geographic positions in epidemiological investigation.
出处
《中华预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第1期63-66,共4页
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
基金
上海市公共卫生重点学科建设项目“传染病学”（08GWZX0101）
关键词
传染病
疾病传播
病毒潜伏期
传播轨迹分析
tracking technique Infectious diseases
Disease transmission
Virus incubation
Transmission
