摘要
分析了影响海南省农垦橡胶园更新的主要因素;借助 Poisson 生长曲线对芽接树割龄产量变化进行了拟合,并以在1个更新周期内平均净现值最大为目标函数,提出了单一林段的最佳更新周期。在此基础上,建立了海南省垦区橡胶园更新 SD 模型,并从模型结构和模型产生的行为2个方面进行了检验。通过对多种方案进行仿真、分析和模糊综合评价,得到了橡胶园更新的优化策略。
The principal factors which affect rubber tree garden replacement in state farms of Hainan Province are analysed.The relation between the production of budding rubber tree and the cut ages is derived by means of Poisson growth curve,and according to the goal which is maximum of average net profit in a replacement cycle,the replacement period of single rubber trees is proposed.On this basis,the SD model construction and the behavior produced by the model are tested.Simulating,analyzing and fuzzy synthetic evaluating on different plans,the optimum tactics for rubber tree garden replacement is obtained.
关键词
橡胶园
更新
计算机仿真
rubber tree garden
replacement
system dynamics
computer simulation
