摘要
当系统的各个单元的失效概率为不精确概率时,传统的概率方法难以使用,而区间分析法等非概率方法得到的结果则比较粗糙。基于证据理论,建立了非精确概率下串联、并联、串并混联、k-out-of-n等典型系统的可靠性模型,利用信任函数和似然函数、根据证据推理,将单元可靠性中的不确定性传递到顶层系统,从而得出系统失效概率和可靠度的概率分布的上下界。实例分析表明,提出的方法能较好的处理可靠性计算中的不精确信息,且比区间分析法得到的有效信息更多。
In the situation that unit failure probability is imprecise when calculation the reliability of system, classical probability method is not applicable, and the analysis result of non-probability method is too coarse. To calculate the reliability of series-parallel systems in the above situation, D-S evidence theory was used to represent the unit failure probability. Belief and plausibility function were used to calculate the reliability of series and parallel systems by evidential reasoning. By this mean, lower and upper bounds of probability distribution of system failure probability were obtained. Simulation results show that the proposed method is preferable to deal with the imprecise probability in reliability calculation, and can get additional information when compare with interval analysis method.
出处
《系统仿真学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第2期317-321,共5页
Journal of System Simulation
基金
十一五国防重点预研项目(426010501
51305060204)
关键词
可靠性
不确定性
非精确概率
证据理论
reliability
uncertainty
imprecise probability
evidence theory
