摘要
从民勤绿洲地下水位多年来的变化出发,用时间序列分析中的ARIMA模型对民勤地下水位主要影响因子进行预测分析,对反映民勤绿洲地下水位主要影响因子的人口、耕地面积、大牲畜存栏、上游来水量4个指标进行预测.结果表明:在2011～2015年,人口和耕地面积将出现一定程度的下降,上游来水量将出现较为微弱的上升趋势,而大牲畜存栏有先增后减的趋势.
Based on changes of groundwater level in Minqin for many years,ARIMA of 4 factors which are the population,cultivating land area,large livestock and upstream water are calculated to forecast the trend of changes of groundwater level.The results show that in the next 5 years periods,from 2011 to 2015,the county population and cultivating area will be a certain degree of decline,and the upstream water will appear feeblish increasing trend relatively,while the large livestock will be increased firstly and then decreased.
出处
《兰州交通大学学报》
CAS
2012年第6期154-158,共5页
Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University
基金
国家自然科学基金(40972204)
