摘要
采用聚类、统计拟合及复杂网络等方法,对2002-2010各省数据分析发现:人均收入大于20000的省份,城乡收入差距在低水位上扩大;低于20000的省份,差距在高水位上呈现倒U型片段。人均收入越高区域,城乡差距越小。城乡收入差距的轨迹是一有倒U型波段衔接成的向下延展的波。近十年城乡差距在扩大,如今维持在11年左右;省内城乡差距最大和最小年数分别是15和7年,且在地理空间上呈现聚集性;省际最大差距年数是13年,省际城镇和省际乡村最大差距分别是8年和13年;城镇消费率近15年持续走低,乡村消费率呈现倒U型片段,且如今乡村消费率高于城镇。还发现:乡城消费率差越小,城乡收入差距就越小,呈现"若乡村消费率每高于城镇消费率1%,城镇人均收入和乡村人均收入比约扩大20%"的数量关系,而解决城乡差距的政策是提高城镇消费率。省份个数分布图从一谱带较窄的分布到一谱带较宽的分布,接着连续性断裂,演化成分立的离散谱带,即社会出现模块化的阶层。
By using the methods of classify statistics and complex net data analysis of 2002 - 2010, we find that： In the provinces whose per capita income is more than 20,000, the urbanrural income gap is slightly larger in the low levels of income; in the provinces whose per capita income is lower than 20,000, the shape is an inverted U- shaped fragment. The higher the per capita income, the smaller the gap between urban and rural areas. The trajectory of the urbanrural income gap is inverted U shape joined with downward extension of the wave. National urban - rural gap is expanding for nearly a decade, now maintain about 11 years the largest urban - rural gap in the province is about 15 years and the smallest gap between urban and rural is about 7 years, and geo - spatial presents obvious cluster effects; the gap between inter- provincial is about 13 years, the maximum towns gap of inter-provincial is about 8 years, the maximum inter -provincial rural gap is about 13 years. In the recent 15 years, the urban consumption increased at a rate of -0.1 each year, while rural consumption rate is embodied an inverted U - shaped fragment; now rural consumption rate is higher than the rate of urban consumption. We also found that： the smaller difference between urban and rural consumption rate, the smaller the in- come gap between urban and rural areas. It shows the relationship that ＂ff rural consumption rate is higher than urban consumption rate 1%, the urban - rural income gap increases about 20 %＂ , and policies to address the gap between urban and rural areas is to improve the urban consump- tion rate. The distribution of province numbers ranges from a narrow spectrum to a wide spectrum, joined with successive fracture, and then it evolves into a discrete spectrum, which means that the appearance of characterize modular.
出处
《科学决策》
2012年第12期29-51,共23页
Scientific Decision Making
关键词
省域和省际
消费率
城乡差距
普适性分布
聚集效应
consumption rate
the gap between ruralurban universal distribution cluster effects
