摘要
基于传统GM(1,1)模型的建模理论,结合建筑物的变形特点,采用实时动态GM(1,1)模型,并辅以残差对模型进行修正,即将动态预报与残差修正相结合,形成基于残差改正的动态GM(1,1)模型。实际算例表明,基于残差修正的动态GM(1,1)模型,能顾及参数的时变性,可显著改善GM(1,1)模型的拟合及预报精度。
Based on the traditional GM （ 1,1 ） model theory and combined with the characteristic of the building, a dynamic GM （ 1, 1 ） model based on the modifying of residual is formed by adopting real-time dynamic GM （ 1, 1 ） model and modify it with the residual, i.e. combining the dynamic forecast and residual modifying. The results of the example show that the dynamic GM （ 1, 1 ） model based on the modifying of the residual can remarkably improve the fitting and predicted due to its taking the parameter time-variation into account.
出处
《地矿测绘》
2012年第4期32-34,共3页
Surveying and Mapping of Geology and Mineral Resources
关键词
GM(1
1)模型
动态建模
残差修正
预报精度
GM （ 1, 1 ） model
dynamic model
residual error modification
forecast precision
