摘要
城镇规模的扩张离不开水资源的支撑,水资源承载力是影响城镇开发的重要因素。论文提出一种以水资源约束测算城镇开发度阈值及从"状态—趋势—效应"尺度进行开发度预警的方法,并以江苏省为例进行实证探索,最终划分综合预警分区。结果显示:到2020年,苏州、无锡、常州、南京将成为重度预警区;徐州、连云港为高度预警区;镇江、扬州、泰州、南通为中度预警区;淮安、宿迁、盐城为轻度预警区。利用GM(1,1)模型和相关方程,对城镇开发度、开发容量、开发临界时点及开发后温度变化与碳汇损益定性定量化,进行整个开发过程的模拟,客观反映城镇开发安全变化的动态性,以期为政府制定差别化的开发政策和预警措施提供科学依据和理论支撑。
Urban expansion can ＇ t go on without water resources, as water resources carrying ca- pacity is an crucial factor to urban development. In this article, we put forward a method of calcu- lating urban development degree threshold based on water constraints and urban development se- curity warning. Taken Jiangsu Province for example, we made a research on urban development security warning from aspects of status, trends and effects, and then we made a division of com- prehensive early warning partition. The results show that： by 2020, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou and Nanjing will be severe warning area. Xuzhou and Lianyungang will be high warning area and Zhenjiang, Yangzhou, Taizhou and Nantong will be moderate warning area, while Huaian, Yancheng and Suqian will be mild warning area. Through GM （ 1, 1 ） model and related equa- tions, we defined and quantified the indexes of urban development degree, development capacity, development critical point, population and temperature changes after development. We aim at simulating the whole process of urban development, reflecting the dynamic of urban development in order to provide scientific basis and theoretic support for government in formulating diverse ur- ban development policies and warning measures.
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第12期2039-2047,共9页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41001047)
江苏省国土科技项目(国土开发度评价)
关键词
水资源
阈值
江苏
城镇开发
预警
water resources
threshold
Jiangsu
urban development
warning
