摘要
利用中国人民银行1992年开始发布的住户部门流量金融资产年度数据,运用协整理论和ECM模型分析我国居民家庭持有的各类金融资产的财富效应,结果表明:可支配收入是影响我国居民消费的主要因素;居民手持现金、存款和股票的财富效应不显著;债券、保险资产存在负的财富效应,对居民消费有挤出效应。因此,在促使居民收入稳步增长的同时,必须进一步发展和完善我国金融市场,扩大市场规模,提高市场效率,稳定投资者预期,并尽快完善住房、医疗、教育、养老保险等体制,才能充分发挥金融资产对居民消费的引导和调控作用。
By using cointegration test and ECM model,based on the annual data of financial assets of household department flow amount published by the PBOC since 1992,the wealth effect of all kinds of financial assets held by Chinese households is analyzed,and the results show that the disposable income is the main factor affecting Chinese residents consumption,that the wealth effect of cash,bank deposit and stock held by the residents is not significant and that bonds and insurance assets have negative wealth effect and squeezing-out effect on the residents＇ consumption,thus,while stable growth of the residents income is boosted,China must further develop and perfect China＇s financial market,enlarge market scale,raise market efficiency,stabilize investors forecast and perfect the system for housing,medicare,education,endowment insurance and so on as soon as possible so that the financial assets can sufficiently guide and regulate Chinese residents consumption.
出处
《西部论坛》
2012年第6期52-57,共6页
West Forum
基金
国家社科基金西部项目(10XJY024)"西部农村民间金融发展与政策规制研究"
关键词
居民金融资产
财富效应
正向财富效应
负向财富效应
消费支出
持久收入
储蓄
股票
债券
保险资产
household financial assets
wealth effect
positive wealth effect
negative wealth effect
consumption expenditure
permanent income
savings
stock
bonds
insurance asset
