摘要
根据鲁西南地区1961—2010气象资料,应用气候倾向率和Mann-Kendall突变检测法,分析了该地区春、夏、秋、冬四季及年际的光、热、水等主要农业气候资源变化特征。结果表明:研究区年均气温、≥0℃积温、≥10℃积温呈上升趋势,其气候倾向率分别为0.16℃/10a、53.8(℃.d)/10a、83.5(℃.d)/10a,其中冬季升温最为明显,其次是春季,并在20世纪90年代的中期发生突变,无霜期以1.9 d/10a的速率延长,表明自突变后热量资源处于丰富阶段;光照资源呈极显著的减少趋势,尤其以夏、秋、冬季的减少趋势最为显著,光照资源在20世纪80年代的中期发生突变,其中太阳辐射量和日照时数减少的倾向率分别为208.4MJ/(m2.10a)、112.1 h/10a;年降水量总体变化不明显,呈略微增加趋势,年际和季节间分布不均,春季和秋季降水呈减少趋势,夏季和冬季呈增加趋势,年内降水分布不均,暴雨日数增多。鲁西南地区总体的农业气候变化存在以"热量资源丰富,光照资源欠缺、水资源不充足"为主要特点的暖干化趋势。
Based on the meteorological data from 1961--2010 in Southwestern Shandong Province, by using climatic trend rate and the Mann - Kendall break detector method, analysis was made of the variation trends of regional main agricultural climate resources of the four seasons and the annual light, heat and water and so on. The results showed that the annual average temperature, ≥ 0℃ and ≥ 10 ℃ accumulated all had increasing tendency, with the tendency ratios of climate were 0.16℃/10a, 53.8（℃ ·d）/10a, 83.5（ ℃·d）/10a respectively, and this increase was most distinct during winter while spring secondly, abrupt changes occurred in the middle of 1990s, the frostless period was prolonged by 1.9 d/10a, all over showed that the heat resources became rich after abrupt change; the light resources had very significant decreasing trend, especially the most remarkable during summer, autumn and winter, and the light resources had abrupt changed at the middle of 1980s, while the solar radiation and sunshine hours decreased by 208.4 MJ/（m2·10a） and 112.1 h/10a respectively; the annual precipitation had no obvious change, with a little increase, and it had uneven distribution in inter-annual and each season every year, while the days of heavy rainfall increased, the water decreased during spring and autumn while increased during summer and winter. The whole study area had warming and drying trend while the main characteristics were rich heat resources, deficiency light resources and insufficient water resources.
出处
《干旱地区农业研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第6期254-260,共7页
Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas
基金
科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项"超级稻超高产栽培气象保障技术研究"(201206045)
关键词
农业气候资源
变化特征
趋势
鲁西南
agricultural climatic resources
change characteristics
trend
Southwestern Shandong Province
