摘要
耦合发展对提高区域经济整体实力和综合竞争力具有重要的实际意义。本文以京津冀区域为研究对象,首先分析了区域旅游耦合发展的优势条件;然后选取国际旅游收入、国内旅游收入、国际旅游者数量、国内旅游者数量四个旅游经济发展指标,依据原始时间序列数据,验证了逻辑斯缔预测曲线与统计曲线的拟合状态为较高;在此基础上运用逻辑斯缔模型预测京津冀区域旅游耦合发展趋势,构建耦合发展新格局。此研究结果以期为京津冀区域乃至全国其他区域旅游经济的耦合发展提供理论上的指导。
The coupled development has an important practical significance for the improvement of the overall strength and competi- tiveness of regional economy. Based on the Jing-Jin-Ji economic region as the object of study, this article firstly analyzed the advantages of the coupled development of regional tourism, then selected the four tourism economic development indicators of international tourism income, domestic tourism income, the number of international tourists, and the number of domestic tourists, and adopted the original time series data to verify that the logistic curve has a high fitting with the statistical curve. In addition, it applied the logistic curve principle to predict the trend and the new pattern of the coupled development in Jing-Jin-Ji region. The results will provide a theoretical guidance for the coupled development of Jing-Jin-Ji economic region and even the whole country.
出处
《企业经济》
北大核心
2012年第11期116-119,共4页
Enterprise Economy
基金
2012年度河北省社会科学发展研究课题“基于碳排放量的京津冀区域经济耦合发展研究”(批准号:201205015)
河北省哲学社会科学基金项目“新形势下京津冀旅游经济一体化增长格局及其驱动机制研究”(批准号:HB11YJ086)
河北省软科学项目“基于可拓工程法的冀中南区域旅游产业发展深化机制及开发战略”(批准号:12457204D-18)
关键词
逻辑斯缔曲线
旅游耦合发展
京津冀区域
logistic curve
coupled development of tourism
Jing-Jin-Ji region
