摘要
利用广西80个气象站1961～2010年的逐日降水量资料,运用线性倾向估计、M-K突变检验等方法分析了广西5个主要极端降水指数在时间、空间上的变化趋势及其差异。结果表明:(1)广西强降水阈值、强降水比例和日降水强度增加趋势显著;大部分台站也呈增加趋势,部分台站增加趋势明显。(2)强降水日数、最大5日降水量变化趋势不明显,但年际间变化较大;各台站也无明显变化趋势。(3)强降水阈值、强降水比例和日降水强度90年代初发生了突变,强降水日数和最大5日降水量未出现突变。
Basing on the daily precipitation data of 80 meteorological stations during 1961 and 2010 in Guangxi, using such methods as linear-trend estimate and Mann-Kendall （M-K） mutation test, the temporal and spatial variation tendency and its differences of five main extreme precipitation indices were analyzed. It shows that： 1 ） the threshold, proportion and intensity of heavy precipitation of all （most, some） stations in Guangxi have a significant increasing（increasing, greatly increasing） trend. 2） The variation tendency （annual variation） of heavy precipitation days and the maximum 5-day precipitation of Guangxi and that of all stations all have no significant （significant） changes.3） The threshold, proportion and daily intensity of heavy precipitation of Guangxi mutate in the early of 1990s, except heavy precipitation days and the maximum 5-day precipitation.
出处
《气象研究与应用》
2012年第3期8-13,共6页
Journal of Meteorological Research and Application
基金
广西气象局科技人才工程建设项目(桂气发〔2009〕107号)
