摘要
平抑经济波动是否具有潜在的福利效应?对此问题的回答关系到经济周期理论研究的深入推进和反周期政策存在必要性的进一步探讨。本文从Lucas基准模型出发,依据是否遵循Lucas基准模型的分析框架,将继Lucas(1987)之后的经济波动福利成本研究划分为狭义经济波动福利成本研究和广义经济波动福利成本研究两大阵营。前者主要是指通过修正Lucas基准模型或采用替代性的消费数据来检验Lucas论断的研究;后者是指考虑了不完全资本市场与消费者异质性等现实经济特征,或是引入了波动与增长的内生性、小概率灾难性事件和主观福祉概念等创新性思想来深化和发展Lucas基准模型的研究。从研究思路和测算方法两个维度对两类文献进行梳理后,我们发现未来的研究可以从引入消费者劳动-闲暇选择、考虑财富代际间转移的可能性,以及合理假定随机消费流生成过程等方面深入展开。
Does it have potential welfare effect to stabilize economic fluctuations？ The answer to this question relates to the promotion of the economic cycles research, as well as whether it is necessary to implement counter - cyclical policies. According to the Lueas baseline model, we divide the researches of the welfare costs of the economic fluctuation into the broad sense and the narrow sense two camps. The former refers to the studies which are conducted by amending Lucas baseline model or using alternative consumption data to test Lucas assertion,and the latter refers to the studies which consider the reality of the economic characteristics of incomplete capital markets and consumer heterogeneity, or introduce some innovative ideas, such as endogenous nature of the fluctuations and growth, small probability of crash states, and the loss of subjective well - being to develop the Lucas baseline model. After combing the two camps of the related literatures from the perspective of research approach and measuring methods, we find that future studies should go further by introducing consumers＇ labor - leisure choice, possibility of the intergenerational transfer of wealth, and the reasonable assumption of the generating process of random consumption stream reasonably.
出处
《经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第6期142-148,156,共8页
Economic Review
关键词
经济波动
福利成本
狭义
广义
Lucas论断
Economic Fluctuations
Welfare Costs
Broad sense
Narrow sense
Lucas thesis
