摘要
目的验证大连市法定传染病中是否存在季节流行现象,即Z-D现象。方法利用1981-2011年大连市法定传染病疫情资料,建立相关疾病的时间序列,选取最佳截取点,并在进行最佳截取点月累计百分位数与前兆升降比的相关分析基础上,运用建立的预测模型进行回顾性和外推性预测。结果大连市甲型肝炎、乙型肝炎、伤寒、细菌性痢疾、流脑、猩红热、麻疹的时间序列不存在Z-D现象,淋病的时间序列存在Z-D现象。淋病的最佳截取点为4月,最佳截取点的月累计百分位数与流行年前兆升降比呈负相关(r=-0.57,P=0.008),回顾性符合率为75.00%,外推性预测符合率为50.00%。结论大连市淋病流行中存在Z-D现象,但外推性预测符合率较低。
Objective To verify the existence of infectious diseases with Z-D phenomenon in Dalian City. Methods Incidence data of infectious diseases during 1981 to 2011 were collected and adopted to establish the time series. The best cut-off point was selected and correlation analysis was conducted between monthly cumulative percentage and predictive ratio of increase to decrease in incidence rate at the best cut-off point. The prediction was based on the established extrapolation model. Results Z-D phenomenon did not exist in the time series of hepatitis A, hepatitis B, typhoid fever, bacillary dysen- tery, epidemic cerebrospinal menin^tis, scarlet fever and measles, but Z-D phenomenon existed in the time series of gonor- rhea. The best cut-off point of gonorrhea was April, and there was negative correlation between monthly cumulative percentage and predictive ratio of increase to decrease in incidence rate （r = -0. 57, P = 0. 008 ）. Retrospective coincidence rate was 75.00%, and the coincidence rate of extrapolation forecast was 50.00%. Conclusions Z-D phenomenon exists in the time series of gonorrhea in Dalian, but the coincidence rate of extrapolation forecast of gonorrhea with Z-D phenomenon was low.
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
CAS
北大核心
2012年第11期998-1001,共4页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
关键词
季节
传染病
预测
Seasons
Communicable diseases
Forecasting
