摘要
应用生态系统理论,在阐明城市化与产业结构之间协调发展重要性的基础上,构建了区域城市化与区域产业结构协调发展评价指标体系.借助区域城市化与产业结构协调发展定量评价模型,对兰州市2000—2009年的城市化与产业结构协调度的动态变化进行了实证研究,在此基础上应用灰色系统理论对兰州市城市化与产业结构的未来协调发展水平进行了预测.结果表明,近10年来兰州市城市化综合发展指数有较大幅度上升,而产业结构综合发展指数则有下降趋势.从动态趋势看,2000—2007年兰州市城市化与产业结构的协调度不断提高,由2000—2001年的失调发展到2002年的中等协调和2003年的中等良性协调,2004—2007年达到优质协调,此后又发展为2008年中等协调,在2009年又处于初级协调;从协调发展水平来看,兰州市城市化与产业结构从2003年开始已经进入初级协调发展阶段;未来趋势分析表明,到2020年兰州市城市化与产业结构耦合发展可能达到理想状态.
From the perspective of system theory,based on expounding the system connotation of coordination development between urbanization and industrial structure,the article establishes the evaluation system of the coordinated development about Lanzhou＇s urbanization and industrial structure.The quantitative appraisal model is employed to analyze variation about urbanization and industrial structure during 2000—2009 and the article predicts the trend in future by using grey system theory.The results are as follows：Lanzhou＇s urbanization has a substantially increase while industrial structure increases in recent ten years.From the dynamic trend to see,the coordination degree of Lanzhou＇s urbanization and industrial structure improves continuously,that is a disordered stage from 2000 to 2001,a medium coordination stage in 2002,a benign coordination stage in 2003,a healthy coordination development stage during 2004—2007,a medium coordination stage in 2008 and a elementary coordination development stage in 2009.From the coordination development level to see,the urbanization and industrial structure of Lanzhou has entered a stage of elementary coordination development since 2003.The trend in future shows that the coupling development of Lanzhou＇s urbanization and industrial structure may achieve the ideal stage in 2020.
出处
《西北师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2012年第6期105-111,共7页
Journal of Northwest Normal University(Natural Science)
关键词
城市化
产业结构
协调发展
兰州市
urbanization
industrial structure
coordination development
Lanzhou City
