摘要
本文利用1957—2010年中国工业经济数据,基于VAR的计量分析方法,研究中国工业经济运行效率与通货膨胀的关系,结果表明通货膨胀是中国工业经济运行效率的格兰杰原因。从脉冲响应上来看,通货膨胀对中国工业经济运行效率的负面影响主要在短期,从中长期来看,适度的通货膨胀有助于中国工业经济运行效率的提升,但我们必须规避高通胀;从方差分解上来看,通货膨胀对中国工业经济运行效率的贡献约为8%,说明制约中国工业经济运行效率提升的根本性因素在于工业经济自身,而不是通货膨胀,因此转变工业发展模式,提升工业发展效率成为当前中国工业经济的重中之重。
This paper studies the relationship between China＇s industrial economic efficiency and inflation based on VAR analysis method by using China＇s economic data in 1957-2010 years. The result indicates that inflation is China＇s industrial economic efficiency＇s Granger Causality, and the inflation, according to impulse response, has a negative effect on China＇s industrial economic efficiency in the short term, but in the long term moderate inflation can help enhance China＇s industrial economic efficiency, thus high inflation must be avoided. What＇s more, the rate of inflation contributing to China＇s industrial economic efficiency is about 8% from the perspective of variance decomposition, indicating that the root of restricting China＇s industrial economic efficiency＇s improvement lies in China＇s industrial economy itself, not the inflation. Therefore, changing industrial economy＇s development model and upgrading industrial development efficiency is very vital and urgent in China＇s industrial economy.
出处
《发展研究》
2012年第10期25-31,共7页
Development Research
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"当前中国农村多维贫困的测度与反贫困政策研究"(批准号11BJL040)
教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目"通货膨胀对我国工业经济运行效率的影响机制
效应与对策研究"(批准号11YJC790205)
广东省自然科学基金博士启动项目"通货膨胀对广东工业经济运行效率的影响与对策研究"(批准号S2011040000414)资助
关键词
通货膨胀
工业经济
效率
inflation
industrial economy
efficiency
