摘要
石油价格的快速上涨通常被认为是影响经济周期的一个重要因素。自2002年以来的油价上涨,已经对我国包括物价在内的宏观经济环境产生了重大的影响。基于中国1993-2010年的季度时间序列数据和SVAR模型等技术,分析了油价波动对中国GDP和通货膨胀率的影响效果,评价了面对油价波动时的货币政策是否有效,以及若有效应采取的货币政策。结果表明:油价上涨1个百分点,会使平均经济产出下降0.26个百分点,而使CPI平均增长0.12个百分点;从短期和长期看,油价的波动对我国的通货膨胀率和GDP都存在着不对称的影响;面对油价的波动,从长期看,央行可以采取适度增发货币量和降低利率的方法来进行宏观调控。
The rapid rise in oil price is considered an important factor affecting the economic cycle. Since 2002, the rise in oil price has a major impact on China macro-economy, including CPI. Based on the quarterly time series and the SVAR model, the impact of oil shocks on GDP and CPI in China is analyzed. Some relevant monetary policies are also evaluated. The results show that 1% rise in oil price may decrease the economic output by 0.26% and increase CPI by 0.12%. In the short and long term, the rise in oil price has asymmetry impact on GDP and CPI. In the long term, the central bank may issue additional currency and decrease interest rate to adjust the macro-economy.
出处
《广东广播电视大学学报》
2012年第5期75-81,共7页
Journal of Guangdong Radio & Television University
基金
瑞典政府战略研究项目"Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate–BECC"
