摘要
汇率失调会给发展中国家的经济持续发展带来较大的负面影响 ,持续的汇率高估甚至会引发货币危机。亚洲金融危机以来 ,人民币币值是否高估成为全球经济学家和政策制定者关注的问题 ,回答这一问题的关键是寻找人民币的均衡汇率水平。本文在Elbadawi发展中国家均衡汇率模型的基础上 ,利用协整分析、误差修正模型和H -P滤波等现代计量经济方法构造了人民币均衡汇率模型ERER ,实证测算出了人民币均衡汇率水平 ,在此基础上 ,对改革开放以来人民币汇率的失调情况进行了深入分析 ,对人民币汇率政策进行了评估。
Exchange rate misalignment will negatively influence economic development of developing countries,persistent overvaluation may even cause currency crises.Economists and policy designers have been caring about whether RMB is overvalued globally since Asia financial crises.The answer lies in seeking the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB.On the basis of equilibrium exchange rate model for developing countries by Elbadawi,the paper designs an ERER model for RMB epulibrium exchange rate by using cointegration analysis ,error correction model,H-P filter and other advanced econometrics methods,and estimats the equilibrium level of RMB exchange rate.Then the paper analyzes the trajectory of RMB exchange rate misalignment since 1978,and gives an assessment of RMB exchange rate policy.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2000年第8期13-24,共12页
Journal of Financial Research
关键词
均衡汇率
基本经济要素
人民币
汇率失调
评估
Economic Fundamentals,Equilibrium Exchange Rate,Cointegration Analysis
