摘要
以灰色理论为基础,通过创建模型预测到河南省"十二五"期间居民消费价格指数的变动趋势表现为2011-2015年居民消费价格指数有升有降,总体呈现平稳上升状态。同时,运用Eviews6.0软件对影响CPI变动的原因进行了研究,结果表明,作为居民消费价格指数重要组成部分的食品、居住类商品价格的上涨是影响居民消费价格指数的主要因素,翘尾因素和虚拟财产是次要因素。
Commodity price is of essential importance in relating to national welfare and the people＇s livelihood. In the past 2010, the state has considered price regulation as an important task to overtake. As the core of ＂Central China Economic District＂, Henan province has played a very important role in stabilizing the prices. Based on grey fuzzy theory and by means of creating the model, this paper predicts that the movement of consumer price index in Henan Province during the twelfth five-year plan will keep a steady increase in the overall state. Additionally, this paper indicates that the rising price of food, housing commodity, which is an important part of consumer price index, is the key factor, and that carryover effect and virtual property are secondary factors. Because of the macro-control of our state and government, the consumer price index in Henan province presents a steady and modest increase.
出处
《常熟理工学院学报》
2012年第7期62-66,共5页
Journal of Changshu Institute of Technology
基金
河南省教育厅2011年度人文社会科学研究项目"中原经济区视角下高职大学生失学率预警研究"(2011-GH-018)
关键词
灰色模糊理论
十二五
物价
预测
影响因素
grey fuzzy theory
the twelfth five-year plan
price
prediction
influencing factors
