摘要
以乌鲁木齐市土壤和农作物为研究对象,在大量野外调查采样和样品测试分析的基础上,运用地统计学和BP神经网络技术等方法,对研究区内土壤重金属的空间分布及重金属污染进行预警研究.结果发现,整个研究区重金属污染均呈增强态势,Cr元素呈现南北两头高、中间低的分布规律,其余各元素均呈现出较为明显的条块状或斑块状分布,且从南到北逐渐降低,高值区主要集中在乌鲁木齐市区.通过BP神经网络模型对乌鲁木齐2015年和2020年土壤重金属含量进行了预测,并对预测结果进行预警分析.结果表明,未来10年内,随着乌鲁木齐社会经济的发展,各行政区重金属元素含量均表现出了累积增长的趋势,其中,天山区、沙依巴克区、新市区和水磨沟区等4个主城区预测值普遍高于其他行政区.从预测结果来看,乌鲁木齐地区未来10年内,Cd元素污染相当严重,将达到重警状态,Zn元素将达到中警状态,其余各元素基本上处于轻警或无警状态.
The spatial distribution of heavy metals in soil was analyzed with methods of geostatistics and BP based on field investigation and sampling.The situation and environmental risk of heavy metals were subsequently assessed.The results showed that the pollution of Cr was higher in the south and north but lower in the middle part.while the other elements appeared stick-or stripe-shape distribution,decreasing gradually from south to north.The regions with high values of heavy metals were mostly near Urumqi.The contents of heavy metals in Tianshan district,Shayibake district,Xinshiqu district and Shuimogou district were generally higher than other districts of Urumqi.According to predicted content of heavy metals in 2015 and 2020,Cd,with levels higher than the warning value,will cause a severe pollution and should be considered as a priority pollutant.The content of Zn is up to medium warning value,while those of other meals are at highest light warning values.
出处
《环境科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第10期2509-2523,共15页
Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划（973）项目（No.2010CB951000）
教育部人文社科项目（No.09XJC790022）
