摘要
在分析现有灌溉用水量预测方法的基础上,运用灰色系统理论,以达开水库灌区1967-2011年农业灌溉用水量为样本,建立了GM(1,1)预测模型,对该灌区未来5年农业用水量进行外推预测。根据预测结果,提出了优化达开水库灌区灌溉用水管理的措施,促进了灌区的管理。
Based on the analysis of existing prediction methods for irrigation water consumption, taking the agricultural water data of Dakai reservoir irrigation district from 1967 to 2011 as the samples, the GM （1, 1） prediction model for agricultural water consumption is established by using the gray system theory, and the agricultural water of this irrigation district in the next five years is fore- casted. Then the specific measures is proposed and the irrigation water management level of the irrigation district is improved.
出处
《节水灌溉》
北大核心
2012年第9期58-60,66,共4页
Water Saving Irrigation
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(50839002)
广西教育科研项目(200911MS319)
广西高校科研项目(200103YB184)
广西水利科技专项基金(No.200806)
关键词
达开水库灌区
灌溉用水量
灰色预测
GM(1
1)模型
Dakai reservoir irrigation district
agricultural water consumption
water management
grey prediction
GM（1,1） model
