摘要
根据获嘉县1961～2010年的气象资料和当地的耕地面积、人口密度和当地居民的经济状况等资料,利用气象材料、方法及评价指标,从暴雨、冰雹、大风等方面对致灾因子进行分析,利用ACRGIS软件插值法进行各种因子的风险区划,并建立了获嘉县的农业气象灾害损失的结构型统计评估模型。结果表明:暴雨、冰雹和大风灾害发生概率高,气象灾害综合风险程度较高的地方主要分布在照镜镇、位庄乡、中和镇和徐营镇,风险程度相对较小的地方主要是城关镇、黄堤镇和亢村镇。
According to the meteorological data and the data about local farmland area, population density and economic status in Huojia County from 1961 to 2010, some disaster-inducing factors, such as rainstorm, hail, strong wind, etc. , were analyzed with the evaluation index, and then a risk zoning map was obtained with the ACRGIS software interpolation method. Finally a structural statistical assessment model was estabhshed for evaluating the losses caused by agricultural meteorological disasters. As indicated by the results, rainstorm, hail and strong wind disasters occurr frequently in this area, especially in Zhaojing, Weizhuang, Zhonghe and Xuying Towns, the areas with low risks of meteorological disasters were Chengguan, Huangdi Kangcun Villages.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2012年第26期12873-12875,共3页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
科技部公益类行业(气象)专项(GYHY201006027)
关键词
气象灾害
风险评估
获嘉县
Meteorological disaster
Risk assessment
Huojia
