摘要
在金融全球一体化的趋势下,随着中国经济政治实力的增强,人民币国际化趋势日益显现。本文运用多元GARCH-BEKK模型,试图从资产价格路径考察人民币国际化背景下的金融稳定效应。实证结果显示:人民币国际化进程的加快显著促进资产价格上升;我国地产价格和股价上涨是双向相互驱动的结果,地价、股价的联合波动具有很强的GARCH效应。引起我国银行不稳定的因素在本研究中表现为资产价格的波动,具体体现为地价和股价相互驱动下的联合波动;银行反馈机制反过来又影响资产价格的稳定从而影响银行自身稳定;而人民币国际化进程的加快通过资产价格的传导路径并没有很显著的影响金融稳定,这与人民币国际化尚处于初级阶段的有限影响力相符合。
Under the accelerating trend of global financial integration, and with the strength of Chinese economy and politics, RMB tents to be internationalized step by step. By using Multivariate GARCH - BEKK model, this paper tries to examine the effect of financial stability through the path of asset prices under the background of RMB internationalization. Empirical resuhs show that： the speeding up of RMB internationalization process significantly causes the rise of asset, real - estate and stock prices, and their combination has a strong GARCH effect. Factors affecting the banking stability in this study reflect the volatility of asset, real - estate, stock prices and their combination; In return, feedback mechanism of banks causes the instability of asset prices, which makes banks unstable. The accelerating process of RMB internationaliza- tion doesn＇ t affect banking stability significantly through the conduction path of asset prices, which is in accord with the limited influence of RMB internationalization in its initial stage.
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第17期30-35,共6页
Science and Technology Management Research
关键词
人民币国际化
金融稳定
资产价格
RMB internationalization
financial stability
asset prices
