摘要
以2006年1月至2010年5月的月度数据为分析样本,在系统考虑影响我国体育用品制造业出口贸易的各种宏观经济因素的基础上,通过运用时间序列的单位根检验、协整关系检验与误差修正模型等方法,对人民币汇率变动与我国体育用品制造业出口贸易结构的长短期冲击效应进行了实证研究。结果表明:从长期来看,在控制其他宏观经济影响因素的前提下,人民币升值对体育用品制造业总出口贸易、球类制造业出口贸易、体育器材及配件制造业出口贸易均产生了非常明显的抑制效应。就短期而言,人民币升值对体育用品制造业出口贸易结构也产生了强烈的负向冲击作用。根据所得结论,探讨了导致该现象的相关原因,并就人民币汇率变动对我国体育用品制造业发展的正负面影响展开讨论。最后,从政府层面、企业层面及金融工具层面出发,提出了基于人民币汇率变动的我国体育用品制造业发展的应对策略,以供相关部门决策参考。
The paper takes the monthly data from January 2006 to May 2010, on the basis of various macro-economy factors of China＇s sports goods manufacture export, and with the method of time-sequencing unit root test, cointegra- tion test and error correction model to conduct empirical study on the short-time and long-time impact of the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate on China＇ s sports goods manufacture expert structure. The results indicate that the RMB appre- ciation has an obvious inhibitory influence on exports of sports manufacture goods, ball manufacturing exports, sports e- quipment and accessories manufacturing exports under the control of the other macroeconomic factors in the long run. And RMB appreciation, in the short run, has also a strong negative impact on the export structure of sports goods man- ufacturing trade. According to the conclusions, the related causes of the phenomenon are discussed. Moreover, the posi- tive and negative effects of RMB exchange rate movements on the development of sports goods industry are studied in detail. Finally, we propose the corresponding strategies of sports manufacturing development based on the RMB ex- change rate movements from the government, corporate and financial instruments, which can be contributed to the rele- vant departments for decision making.
出处
《北京体育大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第7期18-25,共8页
Journal of Beijing Sport University
基金
重庆师范大学基金项目资助"我国西部地区体育用品制造业企业综合实力测评"(项目编号:10XWQ21)
关键词
人民币汇率
体育用品
出口贸易结构
RMB exchange rate
sporting goods
export trade structure
