摘要
系统动力学研究的是复杂系统的反馈结构,擅长于处理非线性时变的多重反馈问题,比较适合于长期、动态、战略性的研究,是研究区域产业经济协调发展系统的一种重要的定量分析工具。本文采用该方法,建立了青岛市工业经济协调发展的系统动力学模型进行模拟仿真,模型由工业经济子系统、区域技术创新子系统和区域经济环境子系统组成,通过模拟仿真进行工业经济发展趋势预测,仿真值和真实值误差较小,模型能较好的反映青岛市工业经济发展现状。并选择政府科技投入占财政支出比例和投资比例作为控制变量,以工业生产总值和区域GDP为监测变量建立三种发展模式,通过不同发展模式仿真结果的分析和比较,提出青岛市应加大政府科技投入占财政支出比例和投资比例,实现工业经济协调发展。
System dynamics aims at solving the feedback structure of complex system,it is specialize in dealing with multiple feedback problems of nonlinear time-varying,it is suitable for long-term,dynamic,strategic research and it is an important quantitative analysis tools for the study of coordinated development of regional industrial economic system.The system dynamics model of industrial economy coordinated development of Qingdao city was built with this method.The model consists of three parts including the industrial economy subsystem,regional technological innovation subsystem and regional economic environment subsystem.Industrial economic development trend forecast was carried out by simulation,the error between the simulation value and the true value is small,this model can reflect the industry economic development status in Qingdao City.In this paper,the proportion of government sci-tech Input to fiscal expenditure was regarded as control variable,the gross industrial production and regional GDP were regarded as monitored variables,three models of development were built furthermore.With the analysis and comparison of simulation results of different development model,the suggestion that Qingdao City should increase the proportion of government sci-tech Input to financial expenditure and investment to achieve coordinated economic development was put forwards.
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
2012年第8期125-128,共4页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
关键词
工业经济
系统动力学
技术创新
城市经济
Industrial economy
System dynamics model
Technology innovation
City economy
