摘要
搜集了1996-2010年15年间的房地产数据和GDP数据,采用EVIEWS软件利用回归分析和GRANGER因果关系的方法,研究了经济增长与房地产发展的关系。经研究分析,经济增长与房地产开发投资有显著的影响关系,通过检验二者之间存在双向的影响,且房地产开发投资对经济增长有很大的贡献率;经济增长是商品房销售额的因果关系,商品房销售额却与房地产负相关,表明了房地产销售额对经济增长产生挤占效应;房地产均价在合理的范围内与经济增长互为因果关系,房地产均价对经济增长也起着很大作用。
The article collected 15 years of real estate data and GDP data from 1996 to 2010,used regression analysis and Granger causality method by EVIEWS software to study the relationship between economic growth and the development of real estate.Through this research and analysis,it shows that economic growth and investment in real estate have a significant impact on the relationship,through the test between the two-way and development of and investment in real estate contributed greatly to the economic growth rate;economic growth results from real estate sales,but real estate sales have negative relationship with economic growth,it illustrates that real estate sales make a crowding effect on economic growth;real estate average price in a reasonable range of real estate average price of economic growth also plays a big role.
出处
《皖西学院学报》
2012年第3期82-85,共4页
Journal of West Anhui University
关键词
房地产发展
GRANGER因果关系
回归分析
经济增长
development of real estate； Granger causality method； regression analysis； economic growth
