摘要
在自然与人类活动共同影响下,黄河中下游流域水循环多过程发生变化,影响了洪涝灾害的成灾模式和发展趋势。采用Morlet小波分析和趋势分析方法,对黄河中下游流域洪涝灾害现状、降水丰枯周期变化、降水强度和频率等进行了分析。结合社会经济发展、水沙关系和凌汛形成机制,剖析了黄河流域洪涝灾害的孕灾环境、致灾因子强度和承灾体脆弱性变化特征。结果发现,黄河流域洪涝灾害发展有如下新形势:黄河流域洪涝灾害整体呈现加重态势;支流和小流域洪涝灾害态势严峻;"小水大灾"频繁发生,损失惨重;凌汛灾情趋于缓和。
The processes of water cycle in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River change under the combined effects of climate change and human activities,which impacts flood disaster modes and evolution tendencies.Status of flood disasters,as well as wet and dry cycle,frequency and intensity of precipitation in the area are analyzed using Morlet wavelet and trend analysis.The variations of hazard inducing environment,disaster causing factors and vulnerability of hazard bearing body are analyzed in combination with social and economic development,relations between water and sediment and mechanisms of ice floods.Finally,new evolution tendencies of floods are identified： floods in the area will be more serious on the whole,especially in tributaries and small watersheds;floods with low peak discharge may result in heavy losses;and ice floods tend toward mitigation.
出处
《水土保持通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第3期188-191,244,共5页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)"气候变化对旱涝灾害的影响及风险评估"(2010CB951102)
关键词
黄河中下游流域
洪涝灾害
水沙关系
凌汛
middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River
flood disaster
water and sediment relation
ice flood
