摘要
选取晋西北7个具有代表性的气象站点1957～2010年气温、降水量和平均风速等实测资料,运用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验法和相关分析等气候诊断方法,分析该地区近50多a来气候变化对风能资源的影响。研究表明:1957～2010年晋西北气候暖干化趋势明显;全年和四季平均风速、风能密度均呈明显减弱趋势;气温和风速、风能密度之间有极显著负相关关系,即气温每升高1℃,平均风速下降0.08 m/s,风能密度下降1.11 W/m2;影响风能资源下降主要原因为东亚季风环流的变化,另外下垫面变化与大气排放量增多也有较大影响。研究认为该地区风能资源潜在蕴藏量不断减小,影响地区风能资源的持续开发。
Based on the temperature, precipitation and average wind speed observations from seven representative meteorological sta- tions in northwest of Shanxi from 1957 to 2010, the local climate change of the recent 50 years and its impact on the wind energy resources were analyzed by using the methods of trend analysis, Mann - Kendall test and correlation analysis. The results show that over the past 50 years, the climate in the northwest of Shanxi presented obviously warming and drying trend, and the wind speed and wind energy density decreased obviously. There are significant negative correlation between air temperature and wind speed, wind energy density, if the air temperature increased by 1℃ , the average wind speed would decrease 0.08 m/s and the average wind energy density would reduce 1.11 W/m^2. Variation of atmospheric circulation, underlying surface and increase of atmospheric contamination may be the main reasons leading to wind energy resources decrease. The local wind energy resources declined with global warming, which would influence sustaining exploiture of local wind energy.
出处
《干旱气象》
2012年第2期202-206,共5页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性:结构
机理与适应对策"(41171090)资助
关键词
风能资源
气候变化
农牧交错带
晋西北
wind energy resources
climate change
agriculture and stock - raising interlaced region
the northwest of shanxi Province
