摘要
介绍了气候模式的发展历程,综述了近年来全球范围内关于极端气候事件的研究现状,比较了不同模式对不同事件的模拟效果并探讨了模拟效果影响因素.虽然不同模式模拟结果有所差异,但大部分模式都能再现极端气候事件的演变过程,并能有效预测未来极端气候变化情况.综述了温室气体增加情景下我国未来极端气候变化的响应研究,提出了其中可能存在的问题,并对未来极端气候模拟研究进行了展望.
The research of simulation of extreme climate events makes rapid progress in recent years. This paper gives a brief introdution of the evolution of the climate models, presents an overview of research status in extreme events in recent years. Comparisons of the simulation effects between different models for extreme events and the influential factors are discussed. Although there is much more variation between the individual model runs, the most models can reproduce the correct signs of trend for extreme climate events and can also predict the future change of extreme events effectively. Responses of future extreme climates events to the increasing greenhouse gases in China is a key topic; and the prospects of simulation of extreme climate events are given.
出处
《三峡大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2012年第3期47-55,共9页
Journal of China Three Gorges University：Natural Sciences
基金
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2009ZX07104-001)
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项子课题(2008ZX07104-004)
关键词
极端气候事件
气候模拟及预测
季风
extreme climate events
climate simulation and prediction
monsoon
