摘要
业绩预告是上市公司信息披露的一种重要形式,能够为投资者提供有关公司未来业绩的信息。然而,由于我国业绩预告具有一定的强制性特征,因此国内关于业绩预告发布动机的研究较少。本文选取2004～2010年的分析师预测样本,研究了制度因素及分析师预测特征因素对业绩预告策略选择的影响。研究发现,大部分满足强制性发布条件的上市公司都能按规定发布预告;分析师预测分歧度越大的公司越倾向于发布预告;分析师预测误差与业绩预告发布的概率正相关,负向误差加强了两者之间的正相关关系。
Earning forecast is an important form of company information disclosure, providing future earnings information for in- vestors. However, some listed companies are forced to issue earnings forecasts in China. Therefore, there are only a few researches fo- cusing on the motivation to disclose the earnings forecasts for Chinese companies. Taking analysts＇ forecasts data during 2004 to 2010 as sample, this paper investigates whether institutional factor and analysts＇ forecasts could affect earnings forecasts strategy of listed companies in China. The results indicate that, most Companies choose to issue earnings forecasts when they meet the mandatory condi- tions; the companies with larger dispersion of analysts＇ forecasts will be more likely to release forecasts; the relationship between ana- lysts＇ forecasts error and the release probability of companies＇ earnings forecasts is positive, and the negative error enhances this posi- tive relationship.
出处
《山西财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第7期87-95,共9页
Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71172186和71102095)
教育部新世纪人才支持计划项目(NCET-07-0309)
过程控制与效率工程教育部重点实验室
关键词
业绩预告策略
分析师数量
预测分歧度
预测误差
earnings forecasts strategy
analyst number
forecast dispersion
forecast errors
