摘要
目的探讨中国恶性肿瘤发病的变化规律，为制定肿瘤防治策略提供依据。方法分析1989-2008年全国肿瘤登记中心的发病数据，计算每年的发病率和标准化人口年龄结构调整的发病率。采用Joinpoint软件分析近20年恶性肿瘤发病率的变化趋势，采用对数线性回归计算年平均变化百分比。结果中国登记地区恶性肿瘤发病率从1989年的184．81／10万上升到2008年的286．69／10万。城市发病率从209．33／10万（1989年）上升到307．04／10万（2008年），农村发病率从176．10／10万（1989年）上升到269．57／10万（2008年）。近20年来，城乡地区和不同性别的恶性肿瘤发病率均呈显著上升趋势。中国肿瘤登记地区恶性肿瘤世界人口标化发病率保持稳定，城市地区每年平均上升0．5％，农村地区变化不明显。2000年以后，城乡地区、男性和女性的恶性肿瘤发病率均呈明显上升趋势。1989-2008年中国肿瘤登记地区排位居前10位的恶性肿瘤发病率持续升高，尤其是肺癌、结直肠癌、女性乳腺癌和宫颈癌。结论1989-2008年中国恶性肿瘤发病率呈明显上升趋势，其中10年变化尤为显著，人口老龄化是其主要因素。胃癌、肝癌和食管癌发病率缓慢上升，肺癌、乳腺癌、结直肠癌发病率上升明显。
Objective Nationwide cancer incidence data were used to analyze the trends of cancer incidence in China in order to provide basic information for making cancer control strategy. Methods We retrieved and re-sorted valid cancer incidence data from the National Central Cancer Registry Database over the 20 year-period 1989-2008. Crude incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate were calculated for analysis. Annual percent changes in incidence for all cancers combined were estimated using Joinpoint software. Results The cancer incidence rate in cancer registration areas was increased from 184.81/105 in 1989 to 286.69/105 in 2008 （from 209.33/105 to 307.04/105 in urban and from 176.10/10s to 269.57/105 in rural areas）. Uptrends of crude cancer incidence were shown in both male and female in urban and rural areas over the 20 year-period. After standardized by age, overall incidence rate kept stable with 0.5% annual increase in urban and no change in rural areas. Since 2000, the cancer incidences in both sexes and areas were significantly increased. The incidence increased for most major cancers, especially lung cancer, colorectal cancer, female breast cancer and cervical cancer. Conclusions Over the 20 year-period 1989- 2008, cancer incidence of most cancers has been increasing by time. The incidences of gastric cancer, liver cancer and esophageal cancer still keep gradually increasing. The incidences of lung cancer, female breast cancer, eolorectal cancer and cervical cancer are markedly going up, so that cancer prevention and control should be enhanced. Cancer registration will play an important role on cancer control in China along with the number of registries increasing and data quality improving.
出处
《中华肿瘤杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第7期517-524,共8页
Chinese Journal of Oncology
关键词
肿瘤
发病率
登记
趋势分析
中国
Neoplasms
Incidence
Registries
Trend analysis
China
