摘要
目的探索江西省南昌县血吸虫感染率时空格局演化规律。方法基于2006-2009年南昌县以行政村为单位的血吸虫感染率数据,利用全局Moran s I、全局Getis OrdG、局域Getis OrdGi*指标和变异函数分析南昌县鄱阳湖沿岸104个行政村血吸虫感染率的空间格局演化。结果自2006年以来,血吸虫感染率全局Moran s I指数不断增大,Getis OrdGeneralG统计指标G(d)值均为0.02,Z(d)值检验均有统计学意义(P均<0.01);热点区域主要分布在东北部与东南部,冷点、次冷点区域主要分布在西南部;3年的最优空间变异拟合函数均为Gaussian模型,块金系数从0.026降到0.006;血吸虫感染率的空间自相关越来越强,变程缩小9.04%。结论南昌县血吸虫病疫情逐渐向沿湖地区集聚,结构性因子的影响逐步上升,但空间关联效应的作用范围逐渐减小。
Objective To explore the evolution of spatial-temporal pattern of schistosome infection rates in Nanchang Coun- ty, Jiangxi Province. Methods Based on the data of schistosome infection rates at unit of administrative villages during 2006 to 2009, the evolution of spatial-temporal pattern of schistosome infection rates was analyzed by means of global Moran＇s I, Getis- Ord General G, local Getis-Ord G＊ and variogram. Results Since 2006, the global Moran＇s I index increased, and all the Getis- Ord General G index G （d） values were 0.02, all the Z（d） values were of statistic significance （all P values were 〈0.01 ）. The hot- spots mainly distributed in the northeast and southeast of the county, while the cold spots and secondary cold spots mainly distrib- uted in the southwest. The optimal fitted variograms of the 3 years were all Gaussian model, the Nugget coefficient decreased from 0.026 to 0.006. The spatial autocorrelation of schistosome infection rates got stronger, the ranges shrank by 9.04%. Conclusion The schistosome infection rates in Nanchang County have a tendency of clustering towards the areas along the lake, and the impact of the structural factors is increasing, but the effect range of spatial correlation is decreasing.
出处
《中国血吸虫病防治杂志》
CAS
CSCD
2012年第3期255-259,F0003,共6页
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control
基金
国家自然科学基金(40861021)
2008年全国教育科学"十一五"规划课题(BLA080064)
关键词
血吸虫病
时空格局
空间关联
空间变异函数
南昌县
Schistosomiasis
Spatial-temporal pattern
Spatial correlation
Spatial variogram
Nanchang County
