摘要
中国经济由二元模式向一元模式转变过程中必然会面临刘易斯拐点问题。文章对中国的刘易斯拐点异象给出了一个理论说明,解释了"民工荒"与农村大量剩余劳动力并存现象的一个重要原因是劳动生产率的人力资本差异。本文还指出中国三十多年来之所以能通过高投资驱动经济增长主要是得益于充裕的人口红利,近几年,"民工荒"使得从表面上看人口红利行将消失,但是实际上农村大量剩余劳动力是潜在的巨额人口红利,应最大限度地加以利用,本文提出了一系列有利于将潜在人口红利转化为现实人口红利的措施,并指出短期内在无法实现经济增长方式根本性转变的条件下,充分利用人口红利的重要意义。
It is inevitable that economic growth must face Lewis turning point from dual economy to singular economy in China.This paper gives a theoretical explanation of unique features of Lewis turning point,and demonstrates that the main reason of coexist of insufficient supply of urban labor and rural surplus labor is the differences in labor productivity which resulted from stock of human capital.The paper also points out that the investment-driven economic growth is benefited from numerous demographic dividends in China in last thirty years.Recently,insufficient supply of urban labor shows that demographic dividend will seemingly disappear,but numerous rural surplus labor is potential demographic dividend,which should be made full use.Finally,the paper proposes some measures that may convert potential demographic dividend into real demographic dividend,and points out that significance of making full use of demographic dividend under the condition of non-change the pattern of economic growth thoroughly in short term.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
2012年第8期52-54,70,共4页
East China Economic Management
关键词
刘易斯拐点
人口红利
经济增长
Lewis turning point
demographic dividend
economic growth
