摘要
在粮食问题形势严峻的情况下,分析影响粮食产量的诸多因素,有利于提高粮食产量。根据1971—2008年云南省的相关统计资料,将粮食产量变化趋势划分为3个阶段,运用灰色系统理论分析了不同阶段云南省粮食产量与其影响因素的关联度,分析其关联系数波动原因。10个因素对粮食产量的影响程度为:农林牧业劳动力>有效灌溉面积>农用排灌动力>农作物总播种面积>粮食播种面积>农作物成灾面积>农作物受灾面积>农村用电量>化肥施用量>农用机械总动力。研究结果可为解决云南省粮食产量稳定增长问题提供理论依据。
In the case of the food problem being grim,analyzing the grain production influence factors is conducive to improve the grain production. According to the related statistical data of Yunnan Province from 1971 to 2008 ,the 38 years were divided into 3 stages ,based on the grain production change trend,gray system theory was used to analyze the correlation degree of grain production influence factors of Yunnan Province in different stages,and the reasons for the fluctuation of correlation degree were analyzed.The calculation results about the degree of the 10 influence factors of grain production as follows：the labor of agriculture ,forestry and animal husbandry〉effective irrigation area〉power of agricultural irrigation and drainage〉total crop planting area〉total grain planting area〉the crop hazard area〉the crop affected area〉rural electricity consumption〉the amount of chemical fertilizer〉power of agricultural machinery.The results could provide a theoretical basis for solving the problem about stable growth of grain production in Yunnan Province.
出处
《现代农业科技》
2012年第11期287-288,293,共3页
Modern Agricultural Science and Technology
关键词
粮食产量
影响因素
灰色关联分析
云南省
grain production
influence factors
grey correlation analysis
Yunnan Province
