摘要
利用陕西省1961—2009年96个观测站的年降水、气温资料以及1997—2006年水利部公布的水资源资料,基于线性拟合、水资源丰枯评价指标、变差系数及产水模数等方法和指标,对陕西省近50 a来的水资源状况进行了气候影响分析。结果表明,基于降水、气温的水资源评估模型能够对陕西省水资源状况进行评估,且评估效果好于只考虑降水的评估模型。近50 a来陕西省气候趋于暖干,年平均气温自20世纪90年代升高,1996年前后发生突变;年降水自20世纪80年代中后期减少,1988年前后发生突变。受气温升高,降水减少影响,近50 a来陕西省水资源量呈减少趋势,1991年前后发生突变,水资源量显著减少。20世纪90年代之前,陕西省水资源量正常偏多,之后水资源正常偏枯,且年际变化显著,年水资源量不稳定。陕西省属于旱年缺水类型,天然供水量的减少增加了水资源利用率,水资源供需压力增大。
Employing the annual mean precipitation and temperature data from 96 meteorological stations in Shaanxi Province during the period from 1961 to 2009,and the water resource data published by Chinese Ministry of Water Resources from 1997 to 2006,the impacts of climate change on water resources of Shaanxi Province were analyzed by linear regression,water resource evaluation index,variation coefficient,and water mode.The results show that,the water resource assessment model based on both precipitation and temperature data was more reasonable in evaluation than the one merely based on precipitation data.The climate had become warmer and drier in the past fifty years,the annual mean temperature increases substantially around 1996 and the annual precipitation decreases sharply around 1988.With the declining precipitation and increasing temperature,the water resources had gradually reduced in the past 50 years,and worsened around 1991.The water resources were more than enough before 1990.Since then,the water resources were less than enough with more significant interannual variations.The water resources are limited in drier years.The reduction in natural water supply enhanced the water use efficiency in the living,industrial and agricultural activities and increased the pressure from water supply and demand.
出处
《水土保持通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第2期114-117,121,共5页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"青藏高原生长对亚洲内陆干旱化及大气粉尘循环影响的模拟研究"(41105060)
国家科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项"气象灾害对重大工程影响评估的关键技术研究"(GYHY200806012)
关键词
水资源
评估模型
气候变化
影响分析
water resource
evaluation model
climate change
impact analysis
