摘要
为了分析研究东江流域径流的演变规律，为流域的水资源可持续发展提供依据。采用模糊带权马尔科夫链原理，累积距平曲线一滑动t检验联合识别变点法，坎德尔（Kendall）秩次检验法等3种，对东江（博罗站）1963-2005年长系列径流序列进行分析。结果表明：预测2004为偏枯，2005年为正常年份；径流突变发生在1974年；径流年际变化不大。说明东江流域径流序列基本趋于稳定不显著增长趋势。
The runoff variation law of Dongjiang was studied for the basin＇s water resource sustainable development. Using the weighted and fuzzy Markov＇s Chain Model, the accumulation of Anomalies Curve-Slide T-test combined identified change site method, the Kendall way methods, the long series of runoff on Dongjiang （Boluo）River in 1963-2005 were studied. The result showed： 2004 was semshort, 2005 was normal, the runoff mutation point was in the 1974, its＇variation of interannual was little. The runoff on Dongjiang（Boluo）River was stable.
出处
《沈阳农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第6期728-732,共5页
Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University
基金
国家重点基础发展研究计划项目(2011CB403306)
公益性行业科研专项项目(201101043
201001012
201101049)
陕西省教育厅科技项目(2010JK705)
