摘要
基于1978-2008年统计数据,采用计量经济分析方法探讨陕西省耕地数量变化与经济发展之间的动态关系。研究结果表明:陕西省耕地面积与人均GDP之间存在长期的均衡关系,但短期内会偏离这种均衡;陕西省经济发展对耕地数量变化的解释水平为10%左右,预测期内不断增强,而耕地数量变化能够解释经济发展的35%以上,但预测期内先增强后减弱。协调耕地保护与经济发展之间的矛盾,应集约利用土地,发展节地型产业和低碳经济,提高耕地占用的经济成本,加大财政强农惠农补贴力度。
Based on statistical data from 1978 to 2008, the dynamic relationships between cultivated land quanti- ty change and economic development of Shaanxi province were studied by econometric methods. The outcomes indicated that cultivated land quantity and GDP per capita had a long - term balanced relationship, but the equi- librium would be deviated in short term. Tile explanation ability of GDP per capita to cultivated land quantity was about 10% in Shaanxi province, but the ability increased in predicting period. The explanation ability of culti- vated land quantity to GDP per capita was above 35%, but the ability strengthened at first and weakened in fore- cast period. We should use land intensively, develop land -saving industry and low carbon economy, enhance the economic cost of farmland diversion, and increase the strength of agricultural subsidies to coordinate the con- tradiction between farmland protection and economic development.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第5期181-186,共6页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(08BJL011)
陕西省国土资源厅项目(14210323)资助
关键词
耕地数量
经济发展
动态关系
陕西省
cultivated land quantity
economic development
dynamic relationship
Shaanxi province
