摘要
气候变化和土地利用变化是影响景观格局动态的两个主要因素。气候变化作为一个重要的自然环境因子,在一定程度上作用于自然植被的分布,进而产生对生物多样性的影响;随着城市化进程的加快,由于人口增长和社会经济发展的社会驱动力作用下,土地利用变化将使得景观格局的变化更为复杂。该文对土地利用/覆被变化驱动力的研究进展及研究热点进行了综述,并从定量评估土地利用/覆被变化变化的角度,回顾了土地利用/覆被变化的模型研究进展,最后分析和展望了当前土地利用/覆被变化相关研究的不确定性及未来发展方向。为景观格局变化对珍稀濒危动物栖息地的影响研究提供理论依据。
Climate change and land use change why population is creasing and social economy developed are two main aspect about landscape pattern dynamic influenced.Nature vegetation pattern were changed and caused some affects of biodiversity that the direct consequece of climate change;at the same times,the land use may lead to more complicated landscape pattern dynamic.Therefore,we summarized that evolution and hot topic of LUCC driving force and reviewed the model of LUCC.LUCC driving force normally divided into two categories： Socio-economic and Natural Driving Forces,Natural Driving Forces that Background factors,Socio-economic that an active factors.The paper divides the LUCC forcasting models into three categories： empirical,dynamic and dynamic-spatial models.Empirical models mainly include grey dynamic models and markov chain mod-el,which work basing on historical data.Dynamic models include linear regression model,non-linear regression model,system dynamic model and artificial neural network model,and so on,which are deduced from LUCC dynamics.Typical dynamic-spatial models in use are Geo-CA model,Agent based model and CLUE-S model.Such models can not only reveal the dynamic characteristics of LUCC,but perform spatial simulation,as is the development tendency of LUCC forecasting models.At last,we analysis indeterminacy and prospect the development direction in area about land use and land cover changed.It＇s the basis for researching effects of ecology of landscape pattern.
出处
《安徽农学通报》
2012年第7期40-44,共5页
Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(No.31100351)
