摘要
油气探明储量增长趋势研究是油公司制定合理的勘探开发战略的基础。以某油公司为例,总结了该公司近10a来控制储量对新增探明储量的贡献率,发现近3a稳定控制储量贡献率在50%左右。控制储量升级率可分为新增控制储量升级率和累积控制储量升级率,研究结果表明,累积控制储量升级率对预测下一年度新增探明储量的增长更有指导意义。考虑到近几年新增控制储量品质相近,利用累积控制储量和新增探明储量的关系,建立了预测下一年度新增探明储量的公式,预测值与实际值误差为9%,该方法可为勘探开发决策部门提供参考。
Oil and gas reserves growth trend prediction research is the key factor for the oil company to make exploration and development strategy.From the study of contribution of probable reserves to the increased proved reserves of one oil company for ten years,it shows a steady rate at about 50% in the last three years.Upgrade rate of probable reserves can be classified into yearly increased and accumulative probable reserves upgrade rate.Research shows that the accumulative probable reserves upgrade rate has more significant meaning for the prediction of the growth of incased proven reserves next year.Considering the quality of increased probable reserves is very close in the recent years,based on the relationship of increased proved reserves with the accumulative probable reserves,a formula is summarized for the prediction of increased proved reserves,with convincing results tested with actual data.This method can be used by the exploration and development decision-making departments.
出处
《油气地质与采收率》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第2期90-92,117,共3页
Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency
关键词
控制储量
探明储量
控制储量贡献率
控制储量升级率
储量预测
controlled reserve
proved reserve
contribution of controlled reserve
upgrading of controlled reserve
reserve prediction
