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基于前景理论的出行路径选择行为 被引量:22

Travel Routing Behaviors Based on Prospect Theory
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摘要 出行者路径选择行为的研究对于城市交通工程和规划具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。传统的路径选择研究基于期望效用理论,但该理论存在着一些不足。前景理论能够较好地描述不确定性条件下的决策行为。首先在前景理论框架下,研究了路径选择模型中参考点的设置,将到达时间作为路径选择的参考点,并通过实际调查,研究了通勤者对不同参考点的设定。最后在参考点不变的情况下,研究了出发时刻对通勤者路径选择的影响。结果表明:前景理论比期望效用理论更加符合实际的路径选择行为,当收益或损失不大时,通勤者倾向于选择路况比较稳定的路径;而当面临的损失较大时,通勤者会选择路况不确定的路径。 The research on travelers' routing behaviors has great theoretical and practical significance to urban transport engineering and planning. Traditional route choice research is based on expected utility theory which has some shortages, while prospect theory can better describe decision-making behaviors under conditions of uncertainty. First, setting of reference points in the model was discussed. Arrival time was considered to be reference point of routing, and commuters' kinds of reference points were studied through questionnaires. Finally, the impact of departure time on commuters' routing with stable reference points was studied. The result shows that the prospect theory is more practical than expected utility theory for routing, commuters tend to choose more stable routes when gains or losses are little, while they would choose uncertain routes when faced with a big loss.
出处 《公路交通科技》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2012年第4期126-131,共6页 Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development
基金 国家自然科学基金项目(50808123 50878129)
关键词 交通工程 路径选择模型 前景理论 参考点 出发时刻 traffic engineering routing model prospect theory reference point arrival time
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