摘要
运用宏观经济学的研究方法,从经济周期视野对我国寿险业的发展态势进行了探讨。首先,对寿险业发展的宏观脉络进行了分析,认为寿险业的产品特征具有较强的亲周期性,通过HP滤波进行趋势周期分解后证实寿险业的周期性波动幅度比产险业显著。其次,对寿险业发展的当前态势进行了分析,维持了寿险业长期趋势向好的总体判断,但认为经济周期对寿险业的负面冲击效应较大,短期内寿险业难以恢复高增长态势。最后,对寿险业的发展提出了若干政策建议,认为准确定位、改善监管和优化环境是促进寿险业可持续发展的当务之急。
This article used the macro-economics research method to research on the development situation ot tml- na＇s life insurance industry from the perspective of economic cycle. Firstly,it analyzed the macro context of life in- surance industry development, concluding that the product features of life insurance industry possessed an obvious pro-cyclicality. It further confirmed that the cyclical fluctuation amplitude of life insurance industry was more con- spicuous than that of property insurance industry after the trend-cycle decomposition by HP filtering. Secondly, this article analyzed the current situation of life insurance industry, and maintained the opinion that the life insurance in- dustry trended positively in the long term,but that economic cycle had significant negative impacts on life insurance industry, therefore, it was difficult for life insurance industry to recover its high growth in the short term. Finally, this article proposed some policy suggestions for life insurance development, and held that accurate positioning, better supervision and optimized environment were urgent issues for promoting life insurance industry＇s sustainable develop- ment.
出处
《保险研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第3期54-59,共6页
Insurance Studies
关键词
经济周期
寿险行业
发展态势
economic cycle life insurance industry
development trend
