摘要
利用波尔森(Brorsen)等研究期货合约成功与失败的模型和数据,对其影响因素间的关系及影响程度等在研究中没有涉及的相关问题进行了更深入的探讨。结果如下:现货市场活跃性是期货市场存在的关键;垂直一体化和买方集中度是影响标的商品生命周期的两个不可忽视的决定因素,两者高度相关,均与期货交易量和持仓量高度负相关;随着市场向高等级形态的发展,两者的提高将使期货市场活跃度降低。
Using the model and data of the successes and failures of the researches conducted by Brorsen et al. on futures contracts, we have made a more deepened research on related problems not involved in the relations between influential factors and influencing factors. The results are as follows ： The activeness of the cash market is the key for the existence of the futures market ; the vertical integration and the buyer concentration are two assignable determinants for the commodity life cycle, and both of them are highly co-related, and also highly negatively co-related to the futures trading volume and positioning volume; along with the high-grade morphological development, their increase will cause the activity of the futures market to dwindle.
出处
《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第2期24-27,共4页
Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences
