摘要
电力系统短期负荷预测受到多方面因素的影响,变化规律复杂。在将经验模态分解法(empirical mode decomposition,EMD)引入电力负荷预测领域的基础上,结合干预分析理论,构建了基于干预分析理论和EMD分解相结合的短期负荷预测模型,先应用干预分析理论将气温敏感负荷从原始负荷序列中提取出来,再对消除了气温负荷后的净化负荷序列应用EMD进行分解预测,并将模型应用于我国华东某地区电网负荷预测。算例结果表明,与不经干预分析直接进行分解预测的结果相比,本模型预测误差明显降低。
Being affected by many factors,short-term load forecasting in power system had a very complex change law. Empirical mode decomposition （EMD） was introduced in this paper, which was combined with intervention analysis theory to yield a short-term load forecasting model. Firstly, the intervention analysis theory was applied to draw the temperature sensitive load component from the original load series. Then, EMD-ARMA forecasting would be applied to the purification load series so as to deal with the temperature effect within the short-term load forecasting process.Being applied to the load forecasting of a certain district power grid in East China, it is demonstrated by the simulation results that the model proposed here could get a significant improvement in the short-term load forecasting result. It is also shown that the application of the intervention analysis theory to eliminate the effects of weather is a very useful attempt in short-term load forecasting.
出处
《电力需求侧管理》
2012年第1期17-20,共4页
Power Demand Side Management
关键词
短期负荷预测
EMD
干预分析理论
预测精度
气温因子
short-term load forecasting
EMD
the intervention analysis theory
forecast accuracy
temperature factor
